Meeting Notes - Local Disaster Preparedness
Corona Virus Preparedness Meeting - 2/29/2020 10am
We attended a meeting this morning from someone in our building who is a member of CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) in Jersey City emergency. He's taken courses on disaster preparedness, risk assessment, etc. He is also VP of a non-profit focusing on resiliency of residence.
The goal of disaster preparedness: do the most good for the most people. These are generalizations, and assumptions of what the situation will be. Their risk assessment and mitigation might be good for you specifically, or not.
Question: What is good for me, and how to delve deeper? (Note: we live in Jersey City, NJ so this is more specific to us - do your own individualized assessment for your own family and local community).
Downtown Jersey City residents - design for your personal situation and prepare accordingly. It’s up to each person to pick and choose, hopefully on a more informed basis after reading these meeting notes.
Risk
Fatality rate - China -roughly 2.3%. This is 23 times more deadly than common flu, could be more or less.
What is happening with the rest of the people who get ill but don’t die?
15 - 18% contract severe illness, but do not die. Note: the speaker is not a medical expert.
Immune system goes into hyperactive mode, attacking the virus but also healthy tissue.
Leads to cascading reaction damaging lungs leading to organ failure.
One detail: weakens walls of fine blood vessels in lungs, liquid seeping through.
Creates blood storm. This information is underreported.
Victims sustain damage, this weakens the immune system, during the next outbreak they are much more negatively impacted.
Incubation period could be up to 27 days.
14 days is generalization, there are reported cases of up to 27 days.
CDC has switched from prevention to mitigation. This cannot be kept out of US. CA monitoring 8000+ people. If detected after 5 days - there are far too many contacts to trace. People may have no symptoms.
What is not known: how long does it survive outside body, on surfaces? We have very little information.
That is risk - lot of unknowns. Younger people less likely to get it than older people. But the doctor in China who died wasn't old.
Personal Situation
If you have young kids, weaker immune system, immune response, if you have parents, take more precautions than a middle age couple with no kids who are living together and can help each other.
Sole caregiver - single parent who relies on others to come in for shopping, etc. if that person doesn't come, what will you do? Leave your dependent person alone and go out shopping? Think this through.
Can I avoid crowded spaces?
Short answer in our area: no. We have elevators, even in our building.
No ventilation, crowded, everyone touching the same elevator buttons.
Take the stairs.
PPE - personal protective equipment - masks
Government said not needed, but they don't disclose underlying assumptions. Most don't know how to install an N-95 mask so it’s airtight. They contaminate themselves when they remove mask.
Vaccine at least a year away. Not when the vaccine is discovered, but when it is available after test and mass production.
Food stores - Shop Rite, BJ, have very little internal warehouse. If supply chain doesn't work, food is not getting in or they seal the area, how quickly will we run out? We’ll be forced to contend with longer supply runs. Our exposure in downtown area is much higher than in other areas, being serviced by way fewer stores than people living here.
If we have it, there is no confirmation we will develop immunity. Pre-existing damage from prior illness will make this worse.
Do I have a dog? Have to go out. 5 - 6 peole in house? How long before food runs out? Disinfect when you go out, disinfect when you come back.
How Do I Protect Myself?
Hand washing. Length of handwashing - at least as long as Happy Birthday twice. # germs killed directly proportional to length of washing.
Why N-95 mask? Specification that determines 95% particles filtered out. People post incorrect information online, beware.
Mask filters aerosols that come from people sneezing. Only currently confirmed protection for yourself against outside.
Cheaper masks - doesn't say N95, outside material is harder, airtight seal against face less likely. If not N-95 from reputable manufacturer like 3M, don't buy because you can't rely on it.
Surgical mask - this will protect other people from you; it’s not airtight, not sealed, doesn't filter enough. If everyone wears one, it would work. But that’s not feasible here. If you have the virus and want to protect others, then it's good. If you think you'll protect yourself, that’s a mistake. Limited use, better than nothing. Overall protection? No.
Install mask correctly, create an airtight seal. But masks are not one size fits all - too big for people with small faces. Press metal around nose so it conforms to your face.
Put on, top elastic strip over your head, then lower strip. Good Youtube videos. Put metal strip on where nose curves. Block and breathe in, should feel it create seal. If you wear glasses, breathe out, and glasses fog, not airtight. When you take it off, touch the elastic bands, do not touch front of mask. Then wash hands.
Reusing masks - in general, no. What if you run out? Rubbing alcohol, Lysol. Alcohol based, not bleach based. Spray it, leave it until dry, do one or two times. 100%? Who knows, depends on alcohol penetration into mask.
After installation, wash hands.
Outside with no close contact, don’t need mask.
Close proximity within 6 feet, advisable to wear mask.
If cases reported in NJ and NY, can't avoid since you need subway. Density. Think about a mask.
Risk based. If middle aged couple, not so bad. If sole caregiver, you need to be more careful.
There are smaller masks, but not one for children.
Leave children inside. If you cannot leave children unattended at home but have to go out, must mitigate risk at all cost.
Do not touch face. If itches, what do you do? Take sanitizing wipe first and use it.
Very risk adverse - consider face shield.
Disinfection
You came home, put keys down, washed hands. Pick up keys, groceries, etc. Recontaminated.
Decontamination process: put keys in container. Disinfect every handle of every bag you carry.
Every single piece of grocery you buy. Person who put on grocery shelf or looked at it might have virus.
Need wipes, sprays.
On your clothes? That's how far you need to think.
Gloves and handwashing.
Disinfect gloves or discard, hands clean. Another option.
To take off gloves, strip off one glove first inside out, hold it balled in other gloved hand, slide off inside out so you only touch clean inside of glove.
Purell, clorox. Kill 99%. Do not use bleach ones for spraying clothes. Cleaning OK, but cautious about other uses. Hand wipes.
Hand sanitizer - don't know how long viruses survive. Some viruses have to expose for a minute to kill. May need sanitizer twice, it evaporates quickly.
Simulate - do a dry run coming home. You touched your water faucet. Now what? This does not come intuitively.
What to expect from government and city? We are Not well prepared. Watched hearing with DHS acting. Doesn't even know how many masks they have. Look at Puerto Rico response - we're unprepared. Hope this is a wake up call but guidelines limit usage of coronavirus testing, which guarantees that we are underreported.
Nothing from Mayer Fulop on coronavirus. Neither federal government or city posted guidance on what support measures will be.
Sealing areas for quarantine? Mandatory home confinement?
We're guessing. Not enough first responders, not enough hospitals.
Only home confinement option left.
People starve to death with no supplies? Everyone should have enough for two weeks (think canned foods - nonperishable, no preparation needed if you’re sick). What if they lift the quarantine, test again, and more are sick?
Doesn't have to be actual quarantine, based on your personal risk assessment. Not just food, think of medications. Most generics not manufactured in US. 90% of ibuprofen manufactured in China.
How long, given # of people in household, what do I need to be fully independent for 2 weeks?
Organize to stay in house as long as possible. Can no longer count on babysitter coming in.
You are it. You have to take care of yourself. Don't count on diffusion of masks from city, support, etc. We have no ability to do rapid scale up in response to outbreak.
A/C? Ventilation system? No Central Air except from hallways. Intake from roof.
Bad thing - works through pressure, something will seep in under door. Could tape door but chances of it carrying significant amount is low.
Bathrooms have vents, out. Not likely.
No ventilation in elevator, #1 thing to avoid.
High rises more breeding ground for people who don't know how to protect themselves.
Practice. We have no muscle memory from our parents living through pandemic.
Wipe your phone.
Excellent article from Celeste on history of the Spanish flu.